Maharashtra politics: How Uddhav-Raj reunion has put Congress in a fix

The political reunion of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray has shifted Maharashtra's political balance, placing Congress in a dilemma ahead of 2025 assembly polls.

Jul 8, 2025 - 18:20
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Maharashtra politics: How Uddhav-Raj reunion has put Congress in a fix
The political reunion of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray has shifted Maharashtra's political balance, placing Congress in a dilemma ahead of 2025 assembly polls.

A Political Reunion Shakes Up Maharashtra

In a dramatic political realignment, the reunion of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has sent ripples across the Maharashtra political landscape, creating strategic complications for the Indian National Congress. The once-fractured Thackeray cousins now seem poised to consolidate the Marathi manoos vote, a development that threatens to alter the dynamics of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.

This renewed bond, cemented ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly elections due next year, has created both an opportunity and a conundrum—especially for Congress, which now finds itself facing the prospect of being overshadowed in its own alliance.


Rebuilding the Thackeray Legacy

After decades of estrangement and political rivalry, the symbolic handshake between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray in June 2025 marked not just a familial reconciliation but a strategic electoral pact aimed at recapturing the Marathi identity politics that the Shiv Sena originally championed.

“This is about unifying our people, our language, and our culture,” Raj Thackeray said during a press conference in Mumbai, flanked by Uddhav. “The time for division is over. We’re coming together to preserve Maharashtra’s interests.”

Political observers see this as a masterstroke that could help recover the lost Shiv Sena base, especially in Mumbai, Thane, and Pune—regions where both parties have historically commanded strong loyalty.


Congress' Dilemma: Between Identity and Inclusivity

The Congress, a critical pillar of the MVA alliance, now finds itself in a strategic fix. While it has stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Uddhav Thackeray during his tumultuous years post the 2019 rebellion and the formation of the Shinde-led faction, the sudden inclusion of Raj Thackeray—a known hardliner in the past—complicates Congress' messaging to its secular, minority, and Dalit vote banks.

“Congress has always stood for pluralism. Raj Thackeray’s entry, given his past rhetoric, could alienate sections of our core base,” a senior Congress leader from Maharashtra told NewsTrack on condition of anonymity.

Adding to this is the Congress high command's reluctance to be part of an alliance that appears increasingly dominated by regional and identity-based narratives—something that contradicts the party's national positioning in the run-up to 2029.


Analysts Warn of an Uneasy Alliance

Political analysts argue that while the Thackeray reunion is likely to strengthen the MVA’s prospects in urban Maharashtra, it may also sow seeds of discontent within the alliance.

“Raj brings a different brand of politics—more aggressive, often unfiltered. Uddhav has mellowed and taken a centrist turn. The Congress, meanwhile, is trying to appeal to the broader secular base,” says political strategist Sameer Deshpande. “This cocktail could either become a powerful force or turn into a recipe for confusion.”

He adds that the real test will be seat-sharing talks. “Who contests from where? Will the Congress concede seats it held in 2019 to accommodate the MNS? If not handled delicately, this could backfire.”


BJP, NCP (Ajit Pawar Faction) Watch Closely

The BJP and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction are observing the development with cautious optimism. A senior BJP leader termed the reunion a “panic reaction” to the Lok Sabha results, where MVA performed well but showed signs of internal dissonance.

“The Shiv Sena and MNS coming together is not a surprise. But their differences on issues like migration, urban planning, and Hindutva will be exposed soon. The Congress will be the first to feel the heat,” said the BJP leader.

Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction too is trying to recalibrate its alliances ahead of the assembly polls, with party insiders suggesting backchannel talks with both BJP and Congress factions in select constituencies.


Investor Outlook: Political Stability or More Volatility?

From an investor standpoint, the political realignments in Maharashtra—a state that contributes over 15% to India's GDP—are being watched closely. While corporate leaders appreciate the possibility of a strong regional alliance to counter BJP dominance, they are also wary of potential policy unpredictability.

“Stability in Maharashtra is critical for sectors like infrastructure, finance, and manufacturing,” said Ashwin Mehta, Head of India Equities at Tusk Capital. “If this alliance brings clarity and unity of governance, markets will react positively. But if it leads to coalition paralysis, investor sentiment will suffer.”

He added that the state budget and industrial policy reforms—already delayed—could be further postponed if political instability reemerges.


The Road Ahead

With months to go before the Maharashtra assembly elections, the Uddhav-Raj reunion has reignited old loyalties while posing new challenges for allies. For Congress, the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping its role—whether as a kingmaker, a silent partner, or a disgruntled dissenter.

The success of this renewed Thackeray unity will depend not only on optics and legacy but on the ability to navigate ideological tensions, electoral math, and coalition management. One thing is clear: Maharashtra’s political theatre just got a lot more interesting.

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