Airspace Restrictions: Pakistan’s Partial Closure Over Karachi and Lahore Could Cost Air India $591 Million Annually

In a development that could reverberate through South Asian aviation corridors, Pakistan has announced partial airspace restrictions over its two major cities — Karachi and Lahore — from May 1 to May 31, 2025. While the official reason cited is “heightened security concerns,” industry insiders believe the implications stretch far beyond regional geopolitics.

The move not only disrupts commercial flight operations across Asia but could also deal a massive financial blow to Indian national carrier Air India, with early estimates projecting a staggering $591 million in potential losses over the course of a year.

This development underscores the vulnerabilities airlines face due to geopolitical instability, particularly in sensitive air corridors such as the India-Pakistan route, which serves as a critical path for westbound flights.

What Has Pakistan Announced?

According to a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) issued by the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority, airspace over key flight zones in Karachi FIR (Flight Information Region) and Lahore FIR will be partially closed for all commercial overflight traffic. The airspace restriction spans from May 1 to May 31, 2025, with potential for extension depending on evolving circumstances.

 Affected Zones Include:

• Major north-south and westbound flight corridors over Lahore

• Strategic Gulf-bound and European flight corridors over Karachi

• Civilian and cargo aircraft routing from India to the Middle East, Europe, and North America

 Official Reason:

“Due to emerging security threats and intelligence inputs suggesting risks to civil aviation safety, selected corridors will remain inaccessible to commercial traffic,” said a spokesperson for Pakistan’s Ministry of Aviation.

How This Impacts Indian Airlines

India, sharing one of the busiest aviation borders with Pakistan, is immediately affected. Flights from New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad heading westward to:

• Europe

• The Gulf

• Africa

• North America

are now forced to take alternative, longer routes, often involving rerouting through:

• The Arabian Sea

• Iranian airspace

• Extended loops via Central Asia

 Operational Consequences for Air India:

• Average increase of 60–90 minutes per long-haul flight

• Estimated fuel burn of 10–15% more per trip

• Crew overtime and aircraft wear-and-tear

• Airport slot misalignments due to delays

• Passenger dissatisfaction and possible missed connections

 Estimated Financial Impact:

Air India officials have internally projected that monthly losses due to fuel costs, delays, and rerouting could exceed $49 million — adding up to approximately $591 million if the closure continues for 12 months.

Why Is This Closure So Costly for Air India?

Unlike regional players, Air India operates a significant portion of its international fleet through Pakistani airspace as part of its standard westbound operations. Flights to London, Frankfurt, Paris, Toronto, New York, and Chicago regularly use these corridors for the shortest flight time and fuel optimization.

 Case Example:

A New Delhi–London flight, which normally takes about 9 hours, now takes close to 10.5 hours when rerouted via the Arabian Sea and Iran, increasing:

• Jet fuel usage by 4,000–6,000 liters

• Crew duty time and wage costs

• Landing and parking coordination at destination airports

Multiply this across dozens of daily flights, and the math quickly adds up to multi-million-dollar monthly losses.

Global Ripple Effects: Not Just an India-Pakistan Issue

While Indian carriers are the most immediately affected, international airlines operating transcontinental routes across Asia are also evaluating contingency plans. Airlines from:

• The UAE (Emirates, Etihad)

• Qatar (Qatar Airways)

• Turkey (Turkish Airlines)

• Singapore and Southeast Asia

may also be affected for westbound and Europe-bound flights, although their dependency on Pakistani corridors varies.

Moreover, cargo airlines, especially those moving perishable goods and pharma shipments, face route recalibrations, leading to potential logistical delays.

Historical Context: Not the First Time

This isn’t an unprecedented move. South Asian skies have seen similar restrictions in the past:

• In 2019, following the Pulwama-Balakot military exchange, Pakistan closed its airspace for nearly 5 months, resulting in over $80 million in losses for Air India alone.

• In 2008 and 2001, during heightened military tensions, similar restrictions led to airline detours and cost escalations.

But what makes the 2025 scenario different is the already strained global aviation landscape post-COVID and amid ongoing geopolitical turbulence — notably Russia-Ukraine airspace bans and Red Sea conflict zones.

Security Threats: What’s Behind the Closure?

While no specific threats have been publicly detailed, regional analysts cite a combination of intelligence concerns, possible internal unrest in Pakistan, and fears of cross-border tensions as the triggers.

Possible Factors Include:

• Political instability in Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh provinces

• Increased militant activity near international borders

• Concerns over VIP or high-profile targets transiting through airspace

• Rising India-Pakistan surveillance activity along the Line of Control

Some insiders also speculate that this might be a pre-emptive move, with the Pakistani government trying to showcase proactive risk mitigation before global regulatory bodies like ICAO step in.

Air India’s Strategy: Mitigation Underway

Despite the blow, Air India is working on rapid operational recalibration to minimize passenger disruption and cost escalation.

Measures Underway:

• Seeking preferential airspace routing from Iran and Oman

• Negotiating crew rest and stopover flexibility for ultra-long haul flights

• Engaging with DGCA (India's aviation regulator) and ICAO for multilateral advocacy

• Exploring temporary code-sharing arrangements to ease peak-hour pressure

Company officials say they're also adjusting pricing models for affected routes to absorb some cost via fares, though they admit it’s not sustainable long-term.

The Broader Economic Impact

Aside from airline losses, this situation hints at larger economic ramifications:

• Trade disruption due to delayed cargo and air freight

• Tourism slowdowns in affected destinations

• Insurance premiums for airlines flying through volatile corridors

• Increased demand for alternate hubs like Dubai, Muscat, Doha, which might benefit from rerouting

Indian aviation bodies are also reportedly in talks with SAARC and ASEAN aviation working groups to foster resilience frameworks for such geopolitical shocks.

Conclusion: A Fragile Region, A Hefty Price

This airspace restriction is not just a rerouting problem — it reflects the precarious balance of geopolitics and commercial aviation in South Asia. For airlines like Air India, it poses a direct threat to profitability and operational efficiency. For passengers, it could mean longer journeys, costlier tickets, and more delays.

In a post-pandemic world where the aviation industry is still in recovery mode, these external shocks can derail even the best-laid business plans. As May progresses, all eyes will be on Islamabad — not just for the possibility of airspace reopening, but for the larger signal it sends about stability and predictability in the region.

FAQs

Q1. How long will the Pakistan airspace restrictions last?
Officially, from May 1 to May 31, 2025, though extensions are possible.

Q2. Which airlines are most affected?
Air India is the most impacted, followed by other Indian carriers and some Gulf airlines.

Q3. Will ticket prices increase?
Possibly, due to higher fuel costs and rerouting inefficiencies.

Q4. What are the alternative air routes?
Via Arabian Sea, Iran, and Central Asia corridors, though they are longer.

Q5. Has this happened before?
Yes, notably in 2019 post-Balakot, when Pakistan shut its airspace for nearly five months.