Jubilant Foodworks shares tumble 4% as Domino's Turkey sales growth slows in Q1: Should you buy, sell or hold?

Mumbai, July 7, 2025 — Shares of Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd (JFL) fell nearly 4% in early trade on Monday, reacting sharply to weaker-than-expected sales growth in Domino’s Turkey operations for the first quarter of FY26. The market sentiment took a hit as investors expressed concerns over the company’s international performance, overshadowing its domestic business resilience.

The stock touched an intraday low of ₹475.30 on the NSE, down from the previous close of ₹495.60, before recovering marginally by mid-day. Over 1.2 million shares exchanged hands in the first half of the trading session, significantly above the 20-day average volume.

What Triggered the Decline?

According to a stock exchange filing by Jubilant FoodWorks, Domino's Turkey witnessed a deceleration in same-store sales growth (SSSG) during the April-June 2025 period. Economic headwinds in Turkey, including persistent inflation, currency devaluation, and reduced consumer spending, were cited as key factors.

The management stated, “Q1 FY26 presented a challenging macroeconomic backdrop in Turkey, leading to pressure on consumer discretionary spends. While we remain committed to long-term growth in the region, near-term volatility is expected.”

Jubilant FoodWorks holds the exclusive master franchise rights for Domino’s Pizza in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Turkey, along with operating Popeyes and Dunkin’ in India.

Analyst Commentary: Mixed Views Emerge

Market analysts offered divergent views on the stock’s outlook following the Turkish numbers:

“The dip in Domino’s Turkey SSSG is not unexpected given the macroeconomic strain, but it may not derail the long-term growth narrative,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities. “However, the stock is richly valued and such international hiccups could weigh on investor sentiment in the short term.”

“The performance in Turkey is a red flag for international diversification strategy,” added Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal. “Investors must reassess exposure to Jubilant until clear signs of demand recovery emerge in Turkey and other international markets.”

Some brokerages, however, maintain a neutral to positive outlook.

Jefferies retained its ‘Hold’ rating with a target price of ₹510, citing robust India business fundamentals. “Domino’s India continues to see healthy recovery in dine-in and delivery volumes post-election season,” it said in a note.

Domestic Business Still Resilient

Despite global jitters, Jubilant’s India operations remain strong, supported by its network of over 1,900 Domino’s stores, continued focus on cost efficiency, and technology-led improvements in delivery.

The company had reported a consolidated revenue of ₹1,497 crore in Q4 FY25, with India operations contributing over 85%. Analysts expect Q1 FY26 results for India to show stable margins, driven by menu innovations and bundled offers.

“India remains the engine of growth for Jubilant FoodWorks. Temporary regional underperformance shouldn’t deter long-term investors,” said Amit Agarwal, Portfolio Manager at Nuvama Wealth.

Investor Outlook: Buy, Sell or Hold?

The recent fall offers a valuation correction opportunity, but the decision to invest depends on one’s risk tolerance and investment horizon.

✅ Buy if:

• You believe in long-term consumption trends in QSR (Quick Service Restaurants).

• You expect Turkey’s macro environment to stabilize over the medium term.

• You value Jubilant’s diversification and digital capabilities.

⚠️ Hold if:

• You already hold the stock and want to wait for Q1 FY26 domestic results.

• You’re cautious about geopolitical or FX risks in global operations.

• You are focused on capital preservation, awaiting a better entry point.

❌ Sell if:

• You view international exposure as a liability rather than a growth vector.

• You expect continued pressure on international SSSG, hurting consolidated margins.

• You have short-term investment goals and want to avoid volatility.

Market Context and Peer Comparison

The Nifty FMCG index was flat at the time of reporting, with Jubilant FoodWorks being one of the few underperformers. Peers such as Westlife Foodworld (McDonald’s India) and Burger King India remained stable, indicating the selloff in Jubilant was more stock-specific.

Brokerage Consensus (as of July 7, 2025):

Short-Term Jitters, Long-Term Story Intact

While the latest performance in Turkey has spooked the market, Jubilant FoodWorks’ core strengths in India — including operational efficiency, strong brand portfolio, and tech integration — remain intact. However, international growth plans may need recalibration in light of geopolitical and economic risks.

For investors, the key trigger now will be Q1 FY26 India numbers, due later this month. Any beat on margins or same-store growth could restore confidence.

Until then, cautious optimism appears to be the most prudent strategy.