Europe’s IPO Bankers Pin Hopes on Fall Window as Revival Falters

London, July 1, 2025 – After a muted first half in Europe’s equity capital markets, investment bankers are now pinning their hopes on a potential revival in the autumn. The anticipated “fall window” – the brief post-summer stretch between September and November – is being viewed as the last realistic opportunity in 2025 for initial public offerings (IPOs) to take off, following a string of subdued listings and cautious investor sentiment.

Tepid Start to 2025

European IPO volumes have seen a significant slowdown in the first half of 2025. According to data from Dealogic, European IPOs raised just €7.4 billion in the first six months, down nearly 35% from the same period last year. Despite market expectations that easing inflation, stabilizing interest rates, and improved investor confidence would reignite listings, a mixture of geopolitical tensions, uneven economic data, and valuation concerns has weighed on activity.

Several high-profile IPOs, including Switzerland-based Galderma and Spain’s Puig, went public earlier this year but struggled to maintain momentum post-listing. Galderma’s shares have fallen nearly 14% since debut, while Puig’s have remained flat despite strong initial interest.

Autumn as a "Make-or-Break" Season

“There is definitely a logjam of companies that are IPO-ready but waiting for clearer skies,” said Caroline Dufour, Head of European Equity Capital Markets at Société Générale. “The fall window will be critical. If we don’t see a meaningful pick-up, many of these IPOs could be pushed into 2026 or shelved altogether.”

The traditional fall IPO window is often the busiest stretch of the year for European capital markets. With August typically quiet due to the holiday season, bankers look to September through mid-November as the prime time to bring large listings to market.

However, investor appetite remains fragile.

Market Context: Competing Forces

The Euro Stoxx 600 is up about 7% year-to-date, with energy, tech, and luxury goods stocks among the best performers. Yet, volatility continues to be a deterrent. Concerns over a potential slowdown in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, and uncertainty surrounding ECB’s interest rate trajectory have created a “wait and watch” environment.

“The biggest challenge right now is pricing risk,” noted Lars Henkel, an ECM strategist at Deutsche Bank. “Companies don’t want to sell at a discount, but investors are demanding protection given the recent underperformance of IPOs. Until we find equilibrium, deal flow will remain weak.”

Adding to the complexity is the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November, which is already starting to inject caution globally among institutional allocators.

Notable Listings on Hold

Several prominent European companies have reportedly delayed their IPO plans. Among them:

• CVC Capital Partners, Europe’s largest private equity firm, had been preparing for a blockbuster IPO in Amsterdam but has postponed its launch.

• WeTransfer, the Dutch file-sharing platform, shelved its IPO plans citing “market conditions.”

• Sandoz, a generics spin-off from Novartis, has also signaled a potential delay due to macroeconomic headwinds.

Meanwhile, some firms are opting for alternative funding routes such as private placements or strategic M&A to sidestep public market volatility.

Sectoral Bright Spots

Despite the overall lull, sectors such as renewable energy, AI and automation, and defense technology have seen pockets of investor interest.

“A well-positioned company in the right sector can still succeed,” said Maria Nordin, Partner at Nordic Capital. “But the bar is higher now. Investors want profitability, clarity on growth, and a strong story. It’s no longer enough to just ride a trend.”

Upcoming potential fall IPOs include a clean energy storage startup in Sweden and a German AI-enabled manufacturing software firm – both of which have reportedly received strong early investor feedback.

Investor Outlook: Valuations and Patience

The IPO drought is not just a European phenomenon. Globally, 2025 has so far been sluggish in terms of listings. Investors remain selective, favoring profitable businesses with robust balance sheets over fast-growing but cash-burning ventures.

Retail investor participation, which had surged during the post-COVID boom, has also waned, further limiting upside in IPO pricing.

“We think the market will open up in fall, but it’ll be a slow build,” said Adrian Lewis, Portfolio Manager at Aberdeen Asset Management. “We’re cautious, but if the right names come with realistic pricing, there’s plenty of dry powder on the sidelines.”

With geopolitical risks simmering and economic signals mixed, Europe’s IPO revival is hanging in the balance. Bankers and companies are now laser-focused on the fall window to salvage what has otherwise been a disappointing year for public listings. Whether this window will unlock the backlog or turn into another missed opportunity remains to be seen.

For now, caution, patience, and selectivity appear to be the dominant themes shaping Europe’s IPO landscape.