JSW Steel Shares Climb 2.03% Amidst Market Fluctuations

June 25, 2025 | Mumbai

Mumbai: Shares of JSW Steel Ltd. rose by 2.03% to close at ₹924.65 on Wednesday, defying broader market volatility. The uptick in the steelmaker’s stock comes amidst fluctuating investor sentiment in the metal sector, aided by firm global cues and renewed expectations of a pickup in infrastructure-led domestic demand.

While benchmark indices swung between gains and losses through the day, JSW Steel emerged as a notable gainer in the Nifty Metal index, which edged up by 0.85%.

Global Tailwinds Support Steel Prices

Analysts attribute JSW Steel’s rise to a mix of improving global steel demand signals and easing commodity price pressures. The recent stabilization in iron ore prices and resilient demand from China’s construction sector have buoyed global sentiment.

"While the broader markets remain choppy, JSW Steel is drawing strength from firming up of HRC (Hot Rolled Coil) prices globally and signs that steel demand is likely to see an uptick in Q2 FY26," said Ravi Bhansali, Senior Equity Analyst at Axis Securities.

Benchmark steel prices in Asia have reportedly inched up by 3-4% over the past fortnight, further supporting sentiment for domestic producers.

Domestic Demand Outlook Remains Encouraging

On the domestic front, India’s steel consumption saw a year-on-year growth of 9.2% in May 2025, led by increased infrastructure activity and real estate recovery in Tier-II cities. Government-backed infrastructure projects and a robust order pipeline from sectors such as railways, defense, and automobiles are expected to bolster demand in the coming quarters.

"JSW Steel has consistently aligned itself with the government’s infrastructure push. Its increasing focus on value-added products and long steel segment should insulate it from cyclical volatility to some extent," Bhansali added.

The company’s strategic capacity expansions, including the ongoing brownfield upgrades in Vijayanagar and Dolvi plants, are also likely to improve volume visibility in the medium term.

Market Volatility and Sector Rotation

Despite JSW Steel's gains, the broader market displayed signs of fatigue. The BSE Sensex ended the day marginally lower at 77,901.23, while the NSE Nifty 50 lost 0.16% to settle at 23,624.10.

Investors appear to be rotating funds out of defensives into cyclical sectors like metals, banking, and capital goods, driven by anticipation of a revival in earnings growth in H2 FY26.

"The metal space, particularly ferrous players like JSW and Tata Steel, has seen some buying interest due to their leverage to global recovery trends and domestic infra thrust," said Priya Malhotra, Fund Manager at Kotak Asset Management. "However, investors should remain selective and focus on operational efficiency and deleveraging efforts."

Financial Snapshot and Recent Developments

In its Q4 FY25 results, JSW Steel reported a 13.6% YoY increase in standalone net profit to ₹3,873 crore, with EBITDA margin expanding to 18.2%. The company’s revenue rose to ₹45,020 crore, driven by better realizations and higher crude steel output.

Moreover, JSW Steel has committed over ₹30,000 crore towards capex over the next two years. This includes commissioning of new hot strip mills, digital transformation initiatives, and investments in green steel technologies under its decarbonization roadmap.

The company also aims to reduce its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to under 2x by FY27, signaling improved financial discipline.

Investor Outlook: Optimism with Caution

While today's gain adds to JSW Steel’s month-to-date return of over 5%, analysts advise cautious optimism.

“Metals remain cyclical and vulnerable to external shocks. Investors should watch global interest rate trends, Chinese stimulus policy, and domestic monsoon impact on rural demand,” said Ankit Sheth, a market strategist at Edelweiss.

However, from a medium to long-term perspective, Sheth believes JSW Steel offers value based on its capacity-led growth, margin resilience, and capital allocation prudence.

Brokerages have maintained a 'Buy' rating on the stock, with Jefferies India assigning a target price of ₹990, citing “a robust earnings outlook, market leadership, and aggressive deleveraging.”

The 2.03% uptick in JSW Steel’s stock price serves as a testament to investor confidence amidst uncertainty. While market volatility may persist in the short term, the steel major’s strategic bets on capacity, technology, and ESG compliance are seen as key differentiators.

For now, JSW Steel continues to forge ahead, both literally and figuratively, as it navigates the ever-shifting terrain of global and domestic steel markets.