Gold prices likely to trend higher in H2 2025, may touch ₹1 lakh: Report
Gold prices could surge to ₹1 lakh per 10 grams in H2 2025, backed by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and a weaker rupee. Read expert forecasts and investor tips.

Mumbai, July 5, 2025 — Gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, is expected to shine brighter in the second half of 2025. A new report by bullion research firm Aurum Analytics suggests that prices could surge and possibly touch ₹1 lakh per 10 grams by the end of the calendar year, driven by a confluence of global economic uncertainty, strong central bank demand, and a weakening rupee.
Bullish Forecast Backed by Multiple Factors
According to the Gold Outlook H2 2025 report, the current macroeconomic environment is creating a perfect storm for precious metals. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, coupled with persistent global inflation, are enhancing the yellow metal’s appeal as a hedge.
"Gold has always acted as a reliable store of value in times of uncertainty. With bond yields softening and inflation staying sticky, gold could witness significant capital inflows in the second half of the year," said Rajiv Mehra, President of the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
Gold Prices Have Already Gained Momentum in H1 2025
In the first half of 2025, gold prices in India rose by nearly 15%, reaching a record ₹74,500 per 10 grams in June, fueled by robust central bank purchases and increasing retail investor interest.
Globally, spot gold has hovered around $2,400–$2,500 per ounce, buoyed by a softer dollar index and expectations that the US Federal Reserve may begin its rate-cutting cycle in Q3 2025.
"If the Fed signals even a moderately dovish stance, we could see gold crossing the $2,600 level internationally, which could translate to domestic prices nearing ₹1 lakh, especially if the rupee depreciates further," said Tanya Gupta, Commodity Strategist at JM Financial.
Central Banks Continue Their Gold Buying Spree
The report underscores the role of central banks, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, in sustaining gold demand. The People's Bank of China and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have reportedly increased their gold reserves in Q2 2025 as part of a broader effort to diversify foreign exchange holdings.
"This aggressive buying trend from central banks is not just a short-term phenomenon. It reflects a structural pivot toward gold, amid concerns over dollar stability and rising debt in major economies," said Karan Bhatia, lead economist at Aurum Analytics.
Domestic Drivers: Rupee, Festive Demand, and Economic Concerns
In India, domestic factors are also contributing to gold’s bullish outlook. The rupee has depreciated to ₹85.20 against the US dollar as of early July 2025, making gold imports more expensive and thereby pushing up domestic prices.
Additionally, the upcoming festive and wedding season in the latter half of the year is expected to spur strong retail demand. The World Gold Council (WGC) projects a 12% YoY increase in India’s Q3 and Q4 gold consumption.
"Indian households continue to value gold not just for its aesthetic appeal but also as a long-term investment. The upcoming Diwali and Dhanteras season could further tighten supply and support higher prices," said Sneha Rathi, a senior analyst at Kotak Securities.
Risks to the Rally
Despite the bullish tone, analysts caution that the gold rally could be tempered by a stronger-than-expected US economic rebound or rapid disinflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts. Moreover, any easing in geopolitical tensions could also reduce gold’s safe-haven premium.
"Volatility will remain high. While ₹1 lakh is achievable under a bullish case scenario, it will depend on multiple macro triggers aligning simultaneously," added Mehra.
Investor Outlook: Strategic Allocation Advised
Given the projected trajectory, experts recommend retail investors allocate at least 10–15% of their portfolios to gold, either through physical gold, ETFs, or sovereign gold bonds.
"Gold continues to serve as an effective portfolio diversifier. Investors should consider systematic investments to mitigate volatility and capitalize on long-term price appreciation," advised Rajat Jain, CIO of SBI Mutual Fund.
With its unique positioning amid inflation fears, central bank demand, and geopolitical instability, gold is likely to maintain an upward trajectory in the coming months. While the ₹1 lakh mark may seem ambitious, current trends suggest that the possibility is no longer far-fetched.
Investors, however, are urged to stay cautious and informed, watching for economic data releases and central bank policy signals that could alter gold’s course in the short term.
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