Gold price outlook: MCX gold rate likely to hold gains next week, may face resistance near ₹98,800 per 10 gms level

Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained buoyant throughout the week amid global economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions, and expectations of prolonged central bank dovishness. As the week closes, experts suggest that the yellow metal is likely to sustain its recent gains in the coming week, although it may face stiff resistance around the ₹98,800 per 10 grams level.

MCX Gold Weekly Performance

MCX gold futures for August delivery closed the week near ₹98,200 per 10 grams, reflecting a weekly gain of over 1.2%. This upward movement was supported by a marginally weaker US dollar, persistent inflation concerns, and continued central bank purchases of gold globally.

In intraday trade during the week, gold briefly touched a high of ₹98,640 but was unable to decisively break through the ₹98,800 mark, a resistance level closely tracked by technical analysts.

Global Cues Supporting Bullish Sentiment

Internationally, spot gold prices traded around $2,476 per ounce on Friday, as investors responded to U.S. economic data indicating signs of slowing job market growth and lower-than-expected retail sales. This renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts later this year.

“Gold remains supported by expectations of a policy shift in the U.S.,” said Ravindra Rao, VP-Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities. “If the Fed pivots toward easing, we could see gold prices breaking out of their current range.”

In addition to U.S. economic data, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have kept risk appetite subdued, driving investors to safe-haven assets like gold.

Technical Outlook: Crucial Resistance Ahead

Technical analysts believe that while the broader trend for gold remains positive, the commodity must break through the ₹98,800 level for further upside momentum.

“Gold on MCX is forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish structure on the daily chart. However, ₹98,800 per 10 grams is acting as a strong resistance. A decisive close above this could push prices toward ₹99,500 and eventually ₹1,00,000,” noted Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities.

On the downside, immediate support is pegged at ₹97,500. A breach below this level may trigger mild profit booking, pulling prices back to ₹96,800.

Rupee Impact and Central Bank Demand

The Indian rupee, which saw minor volatility during the week, also influenced domestic gold prices. A weaker rupee typically inflates the landed cost of imported gold, adding to MCX prices.

Moreover, central banks, particularly those in China, Russia, and Turkey, have maintained their gold-buying spree, further strengthening bullion fundamentals. According to the World Gold Council’s recent data, central bank purchases have exceeded 200 tonnes in the second quarter of 2025 alone.

Retail and Festive Demand in India

With the Indian festive season approaching, physical gold demand is showing signs of recovery despite elevated prices. Jewellers across metro cities are witnessing steady footfalls as Raksha Bandhan and Onam inch closer.

“We’ve seen increasing inquiries and advance bookings even at current price levels. Consumers appear more comfortable buying at higher rates now, which speaks volumes about gold’s cultural and investment value in India,” said Rajesh Mehta, Chairman, Rajesh Exports Ltd.

The recent rally in gold has also attracted attention from retail investors and high-net-worth individuals seeking portfolio diversification amid uncertain equity markets.

Investor Outlook: Stay Cautiously Optimistic

For investors, the outlook on gold remains cautiously optimistic. While short-term corrections cannot be ruled out, the overall macroeconomic environment continues to favor precious metals.

“Gold should remain a part of an investor’s core portfolio. Any pullback toward ₹97,000 can be used as a buying opportunity, especially with a medium- to long-term view,” said Bhavik Patel, Senior Commodity Analyst at Tradebulls Securities.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) have also seen renewed investor interest in recent weeks, indicating confidence in gold as a hedging instrument.

Key Levels to Watch Next Week

• Support: ₹97,500 – ₹96,800 per 10 grams

• Resistance: ₹98,800 – ₹99,500 per 10 grams

• Global Gold Price Level to Watch: $2,500 per ounce

Gold remains well-supported due to a confluence of global and domestic factors. While technical resistance near ₹98,800 may cap immediate upside, the broader trend points toward continued strength in the yellow metal, especially if global central banks tilt dovish in their monetary policy.

As investors seek safety amid macroeconomic uncertainties, gold is likely to remain in demand, with key levels acting as pivots for the next leg of movement.