With copper prices soaring, this Arizona mine could change the US supply game

Phoenix, Arizona – As global copper prices continue their meteoric rise, a long-dormant mining site in southeastern Arizona is suddenly at the center of America’s ambitions to secure critical mineral resources. The Resolution Copper mine, jointly owned by mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP, is being positioned as a potential game-changer in reshaping the domestic copper supply chain.

A New Era for U.S. Copper

Copper has become a cornerstone of the green energy transition, vital for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy infrastructure, and data centers. With demand for the red metal projected to nearly double by 2035, supply constraints have become a critical bottleneck. The Resolution Copper project, located near the town of Superior, promises to deliver up to 40 billion pounds of copper over its lifetime—enough to meet a quarter of U.S. demand for decades.

“This mine could singlehandedly shift the dynamics of copper supply in North America,” said Caroline Meadows, a mining analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “If permitted and developed, Resolution would be one of the largest copper mines in the world.”

Copper Prices at Record Highs

Copper prices have surged over 35% in the past 12 months, recently touching $11,500 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. The surge is driven by a combination of high demand for decarbonization technologies and tightening global supply, particularly from South America, where political instability and regulatory pressures have constrained output in major producing nations like Chile and Peru.

“Global supply is struggling to keep pace,” explained James Templeton, commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “This is why assets like Resolution Copper are so critical. They represent the next frontier of copper production.”

Environmental and Regulatory Hurdles

Despite its potential, the Arizona project faces steep regulatory and political challenges. The mine’s proposed location lies beneath sacred Apache land, and Indigenous groups have been vocal in their opposition.

“There is no copper worth destroying our sacred Oak Flat,” said Wendsler Nosie Sr., a former chairman of the San Carlos Apache Tribe. “This is about preserving our identity, not just a patch of land.”

Environmental groups have also raised concerns about the mine’s impact on water resources and desert ecosystems. The project is currently undergoing a federal environmental review, a process that has stretched over two decades.

In 2021, the Biden administration temporarily halted a land swap deal that would transfer ownership of the federally protected site to the mining companies. However, with pressure mounting to secure critical minerals, the administration may revisit the issue under updated regulatory frameworks aimed at balancing development with conservation.

Strategic Importance and National Security

The U.S. currently imports more than 40% of its copper needs, making it vulnerable to supply chain shocks. In an era where geopolitical tensions are rising and critical minerals are becoming key assets, securing a domestic source is no longer just about economics—it’s a matter of national security.

Earlier this year, the Department of Energy added copper to its list of critical minerals, citing its essential role in energy security and electrification.

“The United States must reduce its reliance on foreign copper sources to ensure the success of our clean energy transition,” said U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. “Domestic mining projects, if done responsibly, are vital.”

Economic and Investment Potential

If greenlit, Resolution Copper is expected to generate over $60 billion in economic value across its lifecycle, along with thousands of high-paying jobs in Arizona. The project has already seen over $2 billion in investment, primarily in exploration and environmental planning.

Rio Tinto and BHP are optimistic about the mine’s long-term prospects, though both companies acknowledge the delicate balance needed to gain local and federal approval.

“Our goal is to develop Resolution in a way that respects local communities and tribal sovereignty while delivering a vital resource to the world,” said Jakob Stausholm, CEO of Rio Tinto, during a recent investor call.

Market analysts believe that if permitting hurdles are cleared, Resolution Copper could begin production by 2032, aligning well with projected demand spikes for copper in EV manufacturing, grid upgrades, and AI-driven data infrastructure.

Investor Outlook

Investors are watching closely. Shares of BHP and Rio Tinto have both seen upward momentum in 2025, in part due to optimism over Resolution’s progress and the broader commodities rally. Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently upgraded both stocks, citing “strategic exposure to next-generation copper assets.”

“There’s a strong investment case here,” noted Amelia Cohen, portfolio manager at FutureMetals Capital. “If Resolution is greenlighted, it becomes a flagship U.S. mining asset with geopolitical and environmental significance.”

Copper-focused ETFs such as the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) and United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) have also seen increased inflows, with investors betting on long-term demand and limited supply.

The Resolution Copper mine symbolizes the convergence of economic opportunity, environmental responsibility, and national strategy. While the path ahead remains complex, the stakes are clear: whoever controls the copper controls the future of electrification. Whether Arizona’s underground treasure becomes the centerpiece of America’s energy transformation will depend not only on markets and metals—but on politics, people, and principles.