Vodafone Idea Share Price: How to Trade Ahead of Q4 Results 2025

As Vodafone Idea (Vi) gears up to announce its Q4 FY25 results, investors and traders alike are closely monitoring the stock for trading cues. The financially embattled telecom player, which has been in the spotlight due to fundraising efforts and mounting AGR dues, may see significant volatility in the coming days. Here’s a comprehensive guide on how to approach the stock ahead of the earnings report.

Market Context: Telecom Sector in Transition

The Indian telecom industry is undergoing a structural transformation, with 5G rollouts, tariff hikes, and subscriber shifts shaping the market dynamics. Vodafone Idea, the third-largest telecom operator in India, continues to struggle with liquidity challenges and subscriber erosion, even as it tries to rebuild investor confidence.

As of May 2025, Vodafone Idea shares are trading around ₹13.20, recovering marginally from their 52-week low but still well below their long-term averages. The stock has been largely range-bound over the past quarter, with investor sentiment hinged on fundraising announcements, spectrum payments, and operational improvements.

What to Expect in Q4 FY25 Results

Vodafone Idea is scheduled to report its Q4 FY25 earnings in early June. Analysts expect the company to report a muted performance, weighed down by high finance costs and stagnant average revenue per user (ARPU). However, any progress in deleveraging the balance sheet or increasing operational efficiency could act as a positive trigger.

“The key monitorable will be ARPU growth and clarity on capital infusion. If the company can show sequential improvement in operating metrics, that could provide a short-term boost to the stock,” said Ravi Menon, Head of Research at Elara Capital.

Consensus estimates suggest that Q4 revenue may stay flat or show marginal improvement from Q3 levels. EBITDA margins are likely to be under pressure due to high network costs and limited tariff hikes during the quarter.

Technical Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical perspective, Vodafone Idea’s stock remains in a consolidation phase. The current trading range is ₹12.50–₹14.30, and any breakout beyond this could indicate a trend shift.

“We are watching the ₹14.50 level on the upside. If the stock closes above this with strong volumes, we could see a near-term rally toward ₹16. Conversely, a breach below ₹12 could lead to retesting of ₹11 or even ₹10 levels,” said Sudeep Shah, Technical Analyst at SBI Securities.

Momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are currently neutral, indicating indecisiveness among traders. However, rising delivery volumes ahead of results suggest accumulation by smart money.

Investor Sentiment and Institutional Activity

Investor sentiment toward Vodafone Idea remains cautious. The stock continues to be speculative in nature, with retail participation dominating. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic mutual funds have largely stayed away, citing weak fundamentals.

That said, recent developments such as the company’s successful ₹18,000 crore follow-on public offer (FPO) in April 2025 have improved liquidity. The participation of anchor investors like GQG Partners and SBI Life Insurance in the FPO is seen as a vote of confidence.

“The fundraising was a much-needed lifeline. However, long-term rerating will depend on subscriber retention and revenue growth,” noted Priya Ranjan, Telecom Analyst at ICICI Securities.

How to Trade Vodafone Idea Ahead of Q4

For Traders:

• Volatility Play: Expect heightened volatility in the run-up to earnings. Consider using options strategies like straddles or strangles if you anticipate large moves but are unsure of the direction.

• Risk-Reward Setup: Buying near support (₹12.50) with a strict stop-loss could offer a good risk-reward ratio.

• Event-Based Opportunity: Be ready for a gap-up or gap-down opening post-results; avoid carrying aggressive overnight positions unless risk appetite is high.

For Investors:

• Wait-and-Watch: Conservative investors may prefer to wait until after Q4 results to reassess the company’s outlook.

• Long-Term Call: Only suitable for high-risk investors with a multi-year horizon who believe in the telecom turnaround story and are prepared for near-term pain.

Outlook Post-Q4 Results

Going forward, Vodafone Idea’s roadmap will be crucial. Investors will look for signs of ARPU improvement, 5G rollout plans, and updates on government dues restructuring. Any indication of strategic partnership or merger will also be a game-changer.

The stock remains a high-beta counter — capable of sharp swings but also susceptible to sharp corrections.

“It’s a classic turnaround story — but one that requires patience and nerves of steel. Q4 won’t change the long-term trajectory, but it may set the tone for FY26,” concluded Prasad Bhave