Vedanta, Tata Steel, others rise up to 3% as White House hints Trump's July tariff deadline 'not critical'

Mumbai, June 27, 2025: Shares of Indian metal and mining giants, including Vedanta, Tata Steel, and Hindalco, surged by up to 3% on Friday after the White House indicated that the July deadline for reinstating Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods may not be "critical". The softer stance eased investor concerns over a potential escalation in global trade tensions, prompting a rally across emerging market equities and commodity-linked sectors.

White House Commentary Calms Markets

During a press briefing on Thursday, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that President Joe Biden is still "evaluating" the former administration's trade policies and that “no firm decision has been made regarding the July deadline for tariff actions.” The remarks were interpreted by markets as a signal that the Biden administration could delay or even reconsider the reimplementation of sweeping duties on Chinese imports — a decision that could have ripple effects across global supply chains.

"While the Trump-era tariffs are still under review, what’s important is that the Biden administration appears open to dialogue and flexibility," said Megan Park, Senior Trade Analyst at Capitol Strategies. "That’s enough to provide a temporary tailwind for global exporters, including those in India."

Metal Stocks React Positively

Indian markets responded swiftly, with Vedanta Ltd. rising 2.7% to ₹387.10, Tata Steel up 2.4% at ₹145.20, and Hindalco Industries climbing 2.9% to ₹617.35 in intraday trading on the NSE. JSW Steel and NMDC also gained between 1.5% to 2.1% amid the upbeat sentiment.

According to analysts, the relief rally was fueled by the anticipation that the rollback or softening of tariffs could restore momentum to global trade, reducing input costs and export barriers for metal producers.

“Metals and mining stocks are highly sensitive to any major shift in international trade dynamics,” said Anand Rathi, Head of Research at Yes Securities. “Even the possibility of tariffs being deferred or diluted adds short-term tailwinds to the sector, which had been under pressure from both inflation and regulatory constraints.”

Market Context: Trade & Tariff Concerns Weighing on Global Metals

Since the start of 2025, metal stocks globally have remained under pressure due to a confluence of factors — including weak Chinese demand, uncertainty around U.S.-China trade relations, and domestic policy challenges.

The Trump-era tariffs, originally introduced in 2018 under Section 301 of the Trade Act, targeted over $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. While many of those duties remain in place, the July 2025 deadline was widely viewed as a flashpoint — either for reimposition or further escalation.

“Investors had been bracing for volatility if the tariffs were reinstated,” said Neha Bansal, an equity strategist at Kotak Institutional Equities. “But the White House’s language now suggests a more pragmatic approach, which is being priced into the stocks."

Global Cues and Commodity Outlook

Internationally, the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw modest gains across base metals, with copper rising 1.1% and aluminium up 0.9% in early trading on Friday. The US dollar also eased slightly, supporting broader commodity sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee strengthened by 11 paise to settle at 82.45 against the US dollar, providing further relief to import-heavy companies in the metal sector.

"Metals have been volatile, and every policy signal — whether from Beijing or Washington — is under the microscope,” said Julian Evans, Global Head of Commodities at HSBC. “But today's signal leans dovish, and that's helping ease pressure globally.”

Investor Outlook: Cautious Optimism

While the immediate sentiment is buoyant, analysts caution that the trade policy picture remains fluid. Any re-introduction of tariffs, or a shift toward protectionist rhetoric, could reverse the current rally.

"Investors should be cautious. The recent rally is speculative in nature, based on political signaling rather than concrete policy change," said Ravi Mehta, Portfolio Manager at DeepValue Capital. "But it does offer a tactical opportunity for exposure to undervalued metal stocks."

Long-term, the outlook for Indian metal majors remains tied to global demand recovery, domestic infrastructure push, and sustainable energy transitions — all of which rely heavily on metals like copper, aluminium, and steel.

The metal sector, often a bellwether for global economic health, received a much-needed breather with the White House’s softer tone on tariffs. Though policy clarity is still awaited, the immediate market response underlines how sensitive global equities remain to geopolitical cues. For Indian investors, the near-term rally provides hope, but prudent portfolio positioning remains key amid ongoing global uncertainty.