Sensex today falls over 130 points, Nifty ends below 24,850 as geopolitical tensions, Fed decision weigh

Mumbai, June 18, 2025 — Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Tuesday, dragged down by weak global cues, intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and mounting caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The BSE Sensex fell by 133.19 points to close at 82,246.71, while the NSE Nifty 50 lost 38.25 points to settle at 24,833.60, slipping below the psychologically important 24,850 mark.

Market Summary

The market began the day on a flat note but gradually drifted into negative territory as selling pressure emerged in key sectors such as IT, realty, and financials. Despite resilience in select auto and FMCG stocks, overall sentiment remained cautious.

• BSE Sensex: Down 0.16% or 133.19 points

• NSE Nifty 50: Down 0.15% or 38.25 points

• Nifty Midcap 100: Flat to slightly negative

• India VIX: Rose 2.1%, indicating rising investor nervousness

Key Sectoral Moves

• Losers: Nifty IT (-0.8%), Nifty Realty (-1.3%), Nifty Financial Services (-0.5%)

• Gainers: Nifty Auto (+0.6%), Nifty FMCG (+0.4%)

Notably, heavyweight IT stocks such as Infosys, TCS, and Wipro were under pressure amid continued uncertainty over U.S. tech spending. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank also witnessed mild declines ahead of the Fed rate decision.

What’s Driving the Market Lower?

1. Geopolitical Uncertainty

Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, alongside persistent instability in the Red Sea region, weighed on global investor sentiment. Brent crude futures hovered near $87 per barrel, triggering concerns about input cost inflation and fiscal pressure on oil-importing countries like India.

“With geopolitical risks escalating, investors are turning risk-averse. This is triggering outflows from emerging markets, including India,” said Amit Khurana, Head of Research at Dolat Capital.

2. US Federal Reserve Meeting in Focus

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its policy decision late Wednesday night (IST). Although the Fed is widely expected to maintain the current benchmark rate, investors remain concerned about the tone of the Fed’s commentary on inflation and future rate cuts.

“The Fed’s outlook on inflation and the timing of rate cuts remain critical. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance, we might see continued volatility in equity and bond markets,” noted Neha Gupta, Economist at Quantum Securities.

Global Market Overview

• Wall Street closed mixed overnight, with the Nasdaq underperforming due to weakness in tech shares.

• Asian markets also showed a cautious tone. The Nikkei 225 declined 0.7%, Hang Seng lost 1.2%, while China’s Shanghai Composite ended slightly higher.

• European markets opened flat to lower amid lingering inflationary concerns and weak economic data.

Domestic Macro Snapshot

India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for May came in at 2.3%, higher than April’s 1.2%, driven by rising food and fuel prices. Retail inflation (CPI), released earlier this week, also ticked up to 5.1%, slightly above market estimates.

These inflationary pressures have reduced the likelihood of a near-term rate cut by the RBI, further dampening market sentiment.

Technical Outlook

According to chart analysts, Nifty’s close below 24,850 indicates near-term weakness, though major support lies near 24,600.

“The index is showing signs of fatigue after a strong rally. A break below 24,600 could lead to a deeper correction, but if it holds, we could see a bounce back to 25,100,” said Manish Shah, Founder at NiftyEdge.

Stocks in Spotlight

• Tata Motors: Gained 1.5% on reports of strong EV sales in Europe.

• Asian Paints: Declined 2.1% after Reliance offloaded part of its stake in a block deal last week.

• Zomato: Fell 3% amid regulatory scrutiny over its new payment feature.

FIIs and DIIs Data

• Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Net sellers worth ₹1,234 crore

• Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Net buyers worth ₹956 crore

FIIs continue to pull out funds amid a strengthening dollar and rising U.S. bond yields, while domestic funds are offering some support at lower levels.

Investor Outlook

Market experts advise caution ahead of the U.S. Fed decision and suggest keeping cash positions ready for possible dips.

“This is a good time to be stock-specific and not chase momentum. Any market correction should be used to accumulate quality names with earnings visibility,” said Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One.

While long-term fundamentals for Indian equities remain intact, in the short term, volatility is expected to persist due to global triggers.

The Sensex and Nifty dipped modestly on Tuesday amid rising geopolitical tensions and investor caution ahead of key global central bank decisions. With earnings season winding down and macroeconomic cues in focus, traders are expected to remain guarded. Market volatility is likely to persist through the week, with global commentary from the Fed potentially setting the tone for near-term direction.