SBI Q4 Results 2025 LIVE: Net Profit May Fall 12% YoY, Asset Quality to Improve – Key Highlights

SBI Q4 FY25 Results: Market on Edge as India’s Largest Lender Reports Earnings

The spotlight is on State Bank of India (SBI) as it gears up to release its Q4 FY25 earnings, with the market keenly awaiting a mix of numbers that could determine short-term sentiment across the entire banking space. While analysts foresee a decline in net profit, expectations around improving asset quality and sustained loan growth offer some cushion for investor confidence.

 Key Forecast:

• Net profit likely down ~12% YoY

• NII growth expected to remain modest

• NIMs under pressure due to deposit repricing

• Asset quality poised for improvement

• Loan book expansion healthy

• Eyes on capital raising and dividend guidance

Quick Snapshot: What to Expect from SBI Q4 FY25

Why Is Net Profit Seen Falling?

Despite strong fundamentals, SBI’s Q4 net profit is expected to decline nearly 12% YoY, mainly due to:

1. Treasury Losses:
   With bond yields rising amid global interest rate volatility, mark-to-market losses on government securities dented treasury income.

2. NIM Compression:
   Repricing of deposits at higher rates impacted margins. SBI’s net interest margin (NIM) may shrink by 10–15 bps sequentially, especially in the domestic book.

3. Rising Opex:
   Wage revisions, branch expansion, and technology upgrades have pushed operational expenses higher.

Despite these headwinds, the underlying core banking operations remain stable, with healthy credit growth and declining bad loans.

Asset Quality to Show Strong Recovery

One of the most encouraging aspects this quarter is the steady improvement in asset quality. Both Gross NPA and Net NPA levels are expected to hit multi-quarter lows, thanks to:

• Aggressive provisioning in earlier quarters

• Better recovery in retail and MSME segments

• Stable performance in corporate loan book

The slippage ratio (new NPAs as % of total advances) is also projected to remain below 1.5%, reflecting robust underwriting.

Loan Book Growth: Where SBI Stands

SBI’s total loan book is estimated to have grown by 14.5% YoY, led by strong momentum in:

• Retail Loans: Especially in home loans, Xpress Credit, and car finance

• Corporate Lending: A pick-up in infra, roads, and power sector

• MSME: Government-backed credit schemes continue to support growth

The Agriculture loan segment also performed well during the rabi harvest season.

Fundraising and Dividend Buzz

With capital adequacy comfortably above regulatory norms, SBI is expected to announce fundraising plans, likely through a mix of:

• Tier I and Tier II bonds

• QIP (Qualified Institutional Placement) if required for growth

Investors are also keen to hear about the final dividend payout, with expectations ranging from ₹9 to ₹12 per share, considering the FY25 earnings trajectory.

Management Commentary – What the Street Wants to Hear

Beyond the numbers, the market will look for clarity on several fronts:

• Credit cost guidance for FY26

• Plans for digital expansion and branch optimization

• SBI’s stance on interest rate direction and deposit mobilization

• Any early signals on FY26 loan growth strategy

Stock Market Reaction: SBI Shares in Focus

SBI shares have remained range-bound in April 2025, but trading volumes spiked this week in anticipation of the results.

Analysts believe a strong beat on asset quality and guidance could lead to fresh upside, while a significant profit miss may cause a short-term dip.

Analyst Views: What Brokerages Are Saying

Motilal Oswal:

“Despite lower PAT expectations due to treasury losses, core operating trends remain healthy. Asset quality surprises may support stock sentiment.”

Kotak Institutional Equities:

“Watch for NIM trends and loan growth commentary. Retail engine is firing well, but treasury drag is a real concern.”

Axis Securities:

“SBI’s leadership in market share and balance sheet strength gives confidence. Q4 may not be spectacular but FY26 looks promising.”

Peer Comparison: How SBI Stacks Up

While private sector peers reported stronger profit growth, SBI remains unmatched in scale, particularly in rural and priority sectors.

Looking Ahead: FY26 Expectations

As FY25 wraps up, the market will shift focus to the year ahead. Here’s what could drive SBI’s performance in FY26:

• Monsoon impact on rural lending

• Repo rate stability or cuts by RBI

• Continued retail loan momentum

• NPA recoveries from legacy accounts

• Capital infusion if major expansion planned

With India’s economy growing at a strong pace, SBI’s deep penetration and massive customer base position it well for future growth—provided treasury losses and margin pressure are managed.

SBI Q4 Results in Perspective

This quarter’s results may not be a blockbuster, but they are likely to reaffirm SBI’s consistency and financial discipline. The dip in net profit, though notable, is a function of external factors like bond yields, not a reflection of deteriorating operations.

Strong improvement in asset quality, healthy advances growth, and a sharp eye on digital transformation suggest that SBI continues to evolve with the times.

As India’s flagship public sector bank, SBI isn’t just a financial institution—it’s a barometer of the nation’s credit health. And in that regard, the outlook continues to remain largely positive.