Radhakishan Damani-Backed Blue Dart Falls 4% Post Q4 Miss: What Investors Should Know

Blue Dart Express Falls 4% After Weak Q4; Radhakishan Damani’s Portfolio Stock Under Pressure

A Portfolio Heavyweight Loses Steam

In a disappointing turn for one of the marquee logistics players on Dalal Street, Blue Dart Express Ltd, a notable stock in Radhakishan Damani’s portfolio, saw its shares slip by 4% intraday following the announcement of its Q4 FY25 results, which fell short of analyst expectations.

While the broader indices remained steady, Blue Dart faced investor backlash due to its weaker profitability and margin compression, further igniting concerns over the sustainability of its growth trajectory in a challenging macro environment.

Stock Market Reaction: 4% Slide on Earnings Miss

On Monday morning, Blue Dart shares opened lower and extended losses as trading progressed, eventually dipping by nearly 4% to ₹6,010, compared to the previous close of ₹6,260 on the NSE. The stock underperformed not just its sector peers but also the Nifty 50, which held flat amid mixed global cues.

Price Action Snapshot:

• Previous close: ₹6,260

• Day’s low: ₹5,992

• Day’s high: ₹6,180

• Change: -₹250 (-4%)

• Volume: [Insert number] shares traded on NSE

Investor sentiment turned cautious, especially as the stock has been largely range-bound for the past few quarters despite being part of Damani’s high-conviction holdings.

Q4 FY25 Earnings Breakdown: Revenue Up, Profits Disappoint

Blue Dart’s Q4 FY25 results, announced over the weekend, painted a mixed picture. While revenue saw a moderate uptick, profitability metrics took a hit due to rising operational costs, particularly in fuel and labor.

Blue Dart Express Q4 FY25 (Standalone) Performance:

• Revenue: ₹1,370 crore (YoY growth of 4.7%)

• Net Profit: ₹62 crore (YoY decline of 18.9%)

• EBITDA: ₹167 crore (Margin at 12.1%, down from 14.6% YoY)

• EPS: ₹26.20, compared to ₹32.30 last year

Management cited rising fuel costs, inflationary pressures on employee benefits, and network expansion expenses as the primary drags on bottom-line performance.

Management Commentary: Focus on Long-Term Efficiency

In a post-results interaction, Balfour Manuel, Managing Director of Blue Dart, maintained that the company’s strategic focus remains on long-term growth, network optimization, and digital transformation.

“Despite near-term headwinds, we are committed to strengthening our core logistics infrastructure while adapting to evolving customer needs. Investments in automation and AI-led routing are expected to improve delivery cycles and operational costs over time,” he stated.

The management also hinted at aggressive plans to scale up e-commerce logistics partnerships, which remain a promising vertical even as B2B volumes continue to see cyclicality.

Radhakishan Damani’s Holding: Long-Term Bet or Cause for Concern?

Radhakishan Damani, founder of DMart and one of India’s most respected value investors, holds a meaningful stake in Blue Dart through his family office. The logistics stock has long been viewed as a steady compounder in his diversified portfolio, which spans retail, FMCG, hospitality, and logistics.

As of the latest data:

• Holding Pattern: Damani holds approximately 1.5% stake

• Investment Value: Estimated at over ₹400 crore

• Time Horizon: Long-term strategic bet since 2021

While today's decline might look discouraging, it aligns with Damani’s approach of investing in defensible businesses with strong moats, even if temporary pressures persist. Blue Dart continues to dominate the premium express logistics segment in India — a space with limited players and high entry barriers.

Industry Snapshot: Logistics Under Pressure but Poised for Growth

Blue Dart’s earnings miss is not entirely isolated. The logistics sector, especially express delivery and air cargo, has been grappling with:

• Fuel cost volatility

• Increased competition from new-age startups

• Softness in discretionary e-commerce demand

However, with the Indian economy growing at over 6.5%, analysts believe that logistics remains a secular growth story. The government’s PM Gati Shakti initiative and National Logistics Policy are expected to catalyze long-term efficiency and infrastructure upgradation.

Brokerage Reactions: Mixed Views on Valuation and Outlook

Brokerages remain divided on the path forward for Blue Dart.

 Kotak Institutional Equities

Rating: Reduce
Target Price: ₹5,500
Comment: “Margins are under pressure, and volume growth is subdued. While long-term prospects remain positive, current valuations look stretched.”

 Motilal Oswal

Rating: Neutral
Target Price: ₹6,300
Comment: “Execution will be key. FY26 will determine whether Blue Dart can maintain its leadership in an increasingly competitive market.”

 ICICI Direct

Rating: Buy
Target Price: ₹6,800
Comment: “Dip presents accumulation opportunity for patient investors. E-commerce logistics remains underpenetrated.”

What Should Investors Do?

If you're an investor tracking Damani’s portfolio or holding Blue Dart shares, here's how to think about your strategy:

 For Long-Term Investors:

Stick to the fundamentals. Blue Dart’s brand, network, and long-standing clientele still provide a durable moat. Near-term pain may offer an entry opportunity for those with a 3-5 year horizon.

 For Short-Term Traders:

Volatility is likely to persist. Q1 FY26 guidance will be critical. Stop-loss strategies may be appropriate to manage downside risk.

 For New Entrants:

Consider phased buying on further dips, especially near technical supports at ₹5,800–₹5,900. Watch out for fuel cost trends and e-commerce order volumes.

Blue Dart Stumbles, But Not Broken

The 4% decline in Blue Dart’s share price post-Q4 results may worry short-term traders, but seasoned investors like Radhakishan Damani aren’t in it for quarterly moves. While rising costs and margin pressure are valid concerns, the company’s operational excellence, market dominance, and digital transformation roadmap still hold long-term promise.

With India’s logistics infrastructure set for a generational overhaul, Blue Dart could emerge stronger from current headwinds — provided it executes efficiently and adapts to evolving market dynamics.

For now, it’s a wait-and-watch, not a panic sell. As always, the key lies in perspective — and patience.