Ozempic, a patent challenge, and the $25 billion race for India’s weight-loss drug market

Mumbai – The global weight-loss drug revolution has reached Indian shores, and at the center of the action lies Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster medication Ozempic. Originally developed for Type 2 diabetes, Ozempic's off-label weight-loss benefits have triggered a global phenomenon—and a legal and commercial storm is now brewing in India, where the market is poised to explode to $25 billion over the next decade.

Ozempic: From Diabetes Therapy to Weight-Loss Icon

Ozempic (semaglutide), developed by Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk, was approved for diabetes management but quickly gained popularity for its dramatic effects on weight loss. It belongs to the GLP-1 receptor agonist class of drugs, mimicking a hormone that regulates insulin and appetite.

“GLP-1 analogs have revolutionized obesity management,” says Dr. Rohan D’Silva, an endocrinologist based in Mumbai. “Patients report 10-15% body weight reductions within months. That’s unprecedented without surgery.”

In the United States, the meteoric demand has strained supply chains, driving Novo Nordisk’s valuation past $600 billion. Now, with India’s population and rising obesity levels, all eyes are on the subcontinent.

Patent Trouble Brews in India

India’s legal and pharmaceutical landscape complicates the picture. Novo Nordisk holds multiple patents related to semaglutide, but Indian generics manufacturers are now challenging these protections. The Indian Patent Office recently admitted a pre-grant opposition filed by a consortium of local drugmakers arguing that the core patent lacks novelty and inventive step under Section 25 of the Patents Act.

“The Indian patent system is designed to prevent evergreening and promote access,” explains Ramesh Krishnan, an intellectual property lawyer at a leading Mumbai law firm. “If the challenge succeeds, it could open the door for generics as early as 2026, years before the global patent expiry.”

This legal move mirrors earlier battles fought over HIV and cancer drugs, where India emerged as the "pharmacy of the developing world."

Domestic Players Gear Up

Anticipating a legal breakthrough, Indian pharmaceutical giants like Sun Pharma, Cipla, and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories are reportedly working on semaglutide generics. According to insiders, Sun Pharma is preparing clinical trials for a biosimilar version of the injectable.

“There’s enormous opportunity here,” says Meera Deshpande, a pharma sector analyst at Edelweiss. “With the right regulatory outcome, local firms could price a generic at one-fifth the global cost, democratizing access while taking a major share of the domestic market.”

Currently, Ozempic and its cousin Wegovy (approved specifically for obesity in some countries) cost upwards of ₹25,000–₹35,000 per month in India—out of reach for most patients.

Weight Loss Market in India: A $25 Billion Opportunity

India has over 135 million people classified as overweight or obese, according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5). Rising urbanization, sedentary lifestyles, and diet changes are key drivers.

The Indian weight-loss drug market, currently valued at under $500 million, is projected to balloon to $25 billion by 2035, say estimates from McKinsey and Bain & Company. The penetration of GLP-1 drugs alone could account for nearly 40% of this growth.

“India is on the cusp of a lifestyle health transformation,” notes Rajat Mahajan, healthcare consultant at McKinsey India. “These drugs could shift the public health burden and create a vast consumer base. But affordability and accessibility will be key.”

Global Implications

India’s entry into the generics space for semaglutide could have significant international ramifications. Analysts warn that generic exports could affect pricing globally, particularly in markets like Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, which rely on Indian pharmaceutical imports.

“Generic semaglutide from India would exert pricing pressure on Novo Nordisk’s global operations,” says Jane Houser, a healthcare equity analyst at Morgan Stanley. “It could also push Western governments to reconsider reimbursement models for branded GLP-1 drugs.”

Regulatory and Ethical Considerations

Indian regulators face a tightrope walk. While enabling cheaper drugs aligns with public health goals, the government must also weigh foreign investment concerns and WTO intellectual property obligations.

Further, experts caution against treating GLP-1s as a silver bullet.

“These are potent drugs with risks—nausea, pancreatitis, thyroid issues,” says Dr. D’Silva. “We need strong pharmacovigilance if mass use begins in India.”

Investor Outlook: Bullish but Watch the Legal Terrain

Investors are watching the patent proceedings with keen interest. Pharma stocks have already responded. Sun Pharma shares are up 11% month-over-month, and Cipla has seen a 7% rally.

“Novo Nordisk’s India revenues are still modest, but the threat of early generics could shave off billions globally,” notes Mahesh Iyer, a portfolio manager at Kotak AMC. “Conversely, Indian pharma could see windfall gains if they’re first to market.”

In the medium term, institutional investors are bullish on companies with biotech expertise and regulatory agility.

Ozempic has become a symbol of modern pharmacology’s power—and its controversies. As the patent battle heats up and India’s pharmaceutical sector positions itself for a massive pivot, the future of weight-loss therapeutics may well be rewritten in Indian courts and clinics.