Nifty Rally Likely as Elliott Wave Signals Strength: Ashish Kyal's July Stock Picks

Mumbai, June 28, 2025 – A potent combination of wave analysis and market sentiment is pointing toward a significant upward move in the Nifty 50 index, according to renowned market expert and chartist Ashish Kyal, founder of Waves Strategy Advisors. Leveraging the Elliott Wave theory, Kyal believes the Indian equity benchmark is poised for a "strong and fast rally" in the coming weeks, as structural setups align with broader economic optimism.

Kyal, a frequent voice in technical trading circles, has also identified two promising stock picks for July 2025, citing momentum and breakout potential. His analysis comes at a time when the Nifty has been consolidating near psychological highs, setting the stage for a possible bullish surge.

Elliott Wave Suggests Impending Impulse Move

At the heart of Kyal's bullish view is the Elliott Wave Principle — a method of technical analysis that identifies recurring wave patterns and investor psychology trends. Kyal notes that the Nifty appears to be completing a corrective wave and could be entering a third-wave impulse phase, often considered the most powerful and rapid in Elliott Wave sequences.

“We are likely seeing the beginning of wave 3 of a higher degree, which typically results in sharp rallies. The structure is showing a classic setup, supported by momentum indicators and a positive advance-decline ratio,” said Ashish Kyal in his recent webinar.

Wave 3 rallies tend to be emotionally driven and fast-paced, according to the theory, often catching skeptics off guard. The Nifty currently trades near 23,650, and Kyal projects a near-term upside target of 24,400–24,600, with the potential to test even higher levels if sentiment remains buoyant.

Macro Tailwinds Reinforce Technical View

Kyal’s bullish outlook aligns with broader market optimism following a wave of policy continuity post-general elections, a stable rupee, falling crude oil prices, and positive inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Recent data shows that FIIs have turned net buyers in June after a pause during election uncertainty, adding over ₹12,500 crore in equities during the month.

India’s GDP growth estimate of 8.2% for FY25 and a steady inflation print have also improved risk appetite among domestic investors.

“The environment is constructive. From both fundamental and technical perspectives, the Nifty seems ready to break out of the consolidation phase,” said Vikas Khemani, Founder, Carnelian Capital.

Stock Picks for July 2025: Ashish Kyal’s Top 2

As part of his July trading strategy, Kyal recommends two stocks that he believes are primed for upside based on chart patterns, volume accumulation, and Elliott structure: Siemens Ltd. and HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC).

1. Siemens Ltd.

According to Kyal, Siemens has formed a classic cup-and-handle pattern on the weekly charts, supported by strong volumes and an upward sloping trendline breakout. The stock recently crossed the ₹5,000 level and is currently trading near ₹5,080.

“Siemens is showing a breakout above resistance levels after a multi-month consolidation. The chart suggests a potential rally toward ₹5,500–₹5,600 in the coming weeks,” Kyal noted.

The stock is also benefitting from the government's increased focus on infrastructure and electrification, making it a key long-term play.

2. HDFC AMC

HDFC AMC, a dominant player in India’s mutual fund space, is exhibiting bullish continuation after a pullback and consolidation near ₹3,700. The stock has resumed its uptrend, with Elliott Wave counts suggesting it may be entering wave 3 of a minor degree.

“HDFC AMC has just completed a flat correction, and we anticipate a rapid rise toward ₹4,100 and beyond in July,” Kyal said.

The mutual fund industry in India has been witnessing steady inflows, and HDFC AMC, as a leader in the space, stands to gain from broader sectoral tailwinds.

Broader Market Sentiment and Investor Strategy

Retail participation in equities continues to hit record highs, with over 14 crore demat accounts active as of June 2025. Derivatives data also suggest bullish sentiment, with put-call ratios rising and open interest building up in near-term Nifty call options.

Technical analysts point out that while volatility may increase ahead of Q1 FY26 earnings announcements, the underlying tone remains constructive.

“Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are supportive, and breadth indicators are improving. However, traders should adopt disciplined risk management, especially in leveraged positions,” advised Anindya Banerjee, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Kotak Securities.

Investor Outlook: Riding the Wave or Caution Ahead?

For medium-term investors, the chart-based strategy provides opportunities to enter momentum stocks with strong breakouts. However, Kyal also cautions that wave analysis, while powerful, is subject to alternate counts and should be used in conjunction with risk management.

He recommends setting clear stop-losses, especially when trading shorter wave degrees, and looking for confluence with moving averages and volume action.

“The key is to ride the wave but stay nimble. July looks promising, but don’t get married to positions — adapt as new data and price action unfold,” Kyal concluded.