NDA readies Bihar battle plan — with Operation Sindoor and caste census as ammo

As Bihar Warms Up for 2025 Polls, NDA Unveils Strategic Blueprint

With the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections on the horizon, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has hit the ground running with a robust political blueprint. Dubbed Operation Sindoor, this outreach strategy targets the significant demographic of women voters. Simultaneously, the NDA is also recalibrating its caste strategy in response to the opposition’s use of the caste census as a political weapon. As Bihar gears up for a high-voltage battle, the NDA is combining symbolism, statistics, and sociology in an intricate electoral formula.

Operation Sindoor: Women at the Heart of NDA’s Pitch

Launched in early June 2025, Operation Sindoor aims to deepen the NDA’s grassroots engagement with women voters, particularly in rural areas. The name, symbolic of marital fidelity and socio-cultural respect, is intended to appeal to the traditional family values that dominate the heartland’s psyche.

Key Components of Operation Sindoor:

• Targeted distribution of welfare benefits under Ujjwala Yojana, PM Awas Yojana, and free ration schemes.

• Special women-only rallies focusing on female education, self-help groups, and entrepreneurship under schemes like Start-Up India and Mudra Yojana.

• Increased visibility of women leaders from NDA’s rank and file.

Senior BJP leader and Union Minister Nityanand Rai told reporters in Patna, “Women were instrumental in our Lok Sabha success. Now, through Operation Sindoor, we want to recognize and empower their voice at the state level.”

Analysts believe this approach may help blunt the opposition’s narrative built around caste census and economic disparity. "The NDA is countering socio-political fragmentation with household-level engagement," noted political strategist Richa Mishra.

Caste Census: From Opposition Weapon to NDA's Defensive Adaptation

While the opposition INDIA bloc, led by the RJD-Congress combine, is aggressively pushing the caste census data to consolidate backward and marginalized caste votes, the NDA has chosen a nuanced route.

Instead of outright dismissal, the NDA is now selectively embracing caste data to showcase inclusive development. The state BJP unit has commissioned internal studies correlating welfare delivery with caste groups. The idea: to demonstrate that schemes have not discriminated but benefited all castes equitably.

Furthermore, NDA leaders have begun emphasizing “development with justice” — a repackaged slogan to neutralize the “jitni abaadi, utna haq” (equal rights for equal population) cry of the opposition.

Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), despite discomfort over the BJP’s aggressive Hindutva stance, is also recalibrating its position. Sources indicate that Kumar may propose a “social harmony pact” with BJP to avoid fragmentation of OBC support.

Coalition Dynamics: Keeping the Flock Together

The NDA’s battle plan isn’t just aimed at voters — it’s also about solidifying its internal coalition dynamics. The BJP is walking a tightrope between asserting dominance and allowing regional allies like JD(U) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) some breathing space.

Insiders reveal that Amit Shah has held multiple strategy sessions with state BJP leaders and alliance partners. A key focus: candidate selection based on winnability and caste arithmetic, not merely loyalty.

Political observer and author Ajay Chaurasia points out, “The NDA knows Bihar can’t be won by brute numbers or charisma alone. They are engineering a delicate equilibrium — ideological, social, and electoral.”

Opposition Response: RJD and Congress Double Down

While NDA expands its footprint, the RJD is leaving no stone unturned to leverage the caste census. Tejashwi Yadav has launched Nyay Yatra 2.0, aimed at “awakening” backward classes. Public rallies are being designed around caste-based economic disparity and alleged “BJP apathy.”

However, NDA leaders dismiss this as “divisive politics.” “People want jobs, roads, and safety — not caste slogans,” said BJP state president Samrat Choudhary.

Voter Mood & Ground Realities: A Battle of Narratives

Early surveys indicate a neck-and-neck race. Women voters, particularly beneficiaries of state and central schemes, seem inclined toward the NDA. However, youth and unemployed segments remain volatile — an area where the opposition is trying to make inroads.

“The electoral landscape is polarized but fluid,” says Dr. Rashmi Verma, a sociologist at Patna University. “The NDA’s strategy is proactive, but whether it can outshine the opposition’s caste mobilization depends on execution and messaging.”

Market and Investor Outlook: Political Stability vs Populist Risk

For investors, Bihar’s political landscape holds significant implications. A stable NDA return would likely mean policy continuity and further central support for infrastructure and agricultural projects.

“Political certainty in Bihar boosts investor confidence, especially in agri-logistics, warehousing, and highways,” said Sandeep Narang, Senior Economist at MarketPoint Advisors. However, populist giveaways and caste-based appeasement might also strain the state’s fiscal health.

Multinationals eyeing Bihar’s growing consumer base are monitoring the policy trajectory. “Stable governance and ease of doing business — these matter far more than caste calculus,” noted a senior executive at a Delhi-based retail conglomerate.

A High-Stakes Battle Ahead

As Bihar inches toward elections, the NDA's strategy reveals a hybrid political model — blending cultural symbolism (Operation Sindoor), data adaptation (caste census), and alliance management. With the opposition banking heavily on identity politics, the stage is set for one of India’s most watched electoral contests in 2025.

The outcome could not only reshape Bihar’s future but also serve as a bellwether for 2029 national politics.