IPO GMPs: Sambhav Steel IPO vs HDB IPO vs Indogulf Cropsciences IPO – What the Grey Market Signals?

Introduction

India’s primary market is once again abuzz with excitement as three new IPOs – Sambhav Steel & Pipes, HDB Financial Services, and Indogulf Cropsciences – enter the fray. With investors increasingly turning to the grey market for early sentiment cues, the Grey Market Premium (GMP) of these IPOs offers a peek into potential listing performance and market appetite. Here's a closer look at how the GMPs of these three IPOs stack up and what they reveal about investor expectations.

Understanding the Grey Market Pulse

Grey Market Premium, or GMP, is the unofficial premium at which IPO shares are traded before they are officially listed on stock exchanges. Though unregulated, GMPs are widely followed as a sentiment indicator, particularly in India where retail investors rely on these numbers for short-term decisions.

All three IPOs – Sambhav Steel, HDB Financial Services, and Indogulf Cropsciences – are generating attention for different reasons. While HDB is backed by the blue-chip HDFC group, Sambhav Steel is a value play from the infrastructure sector, and Indogulf taps into the ever-resilient agri-chemical space.

Sambhav Steel IPO: Modest Signals Despite Strong Fundamentals

Sambhav Steel and Pipes Ltd opened its IPO for subscription earlier this week, aiming to raise approximately ₹200 crore. The company manufactures structural steel products catering to construction and infrastructure sectors – a space aligned with government-led infrastructure growth.

As of Day 2 of its IPO, Sambhav Steel is commanding a GMP of ₹12-15, translating into a 10-15% premium over its issue price of ₹110 per share.

"The GMP for Sambhav is encouraging but not overly aggressive," said Amar Singh, Lead Analyst at VentureSec Capital. "It reflects a measured optimism, perhaps due to modest valuations and decent fundamentals, but without the backing of a big name."

The IPO has already seen an oversubscription in the retail category, though the QIB and HNI interest remains lukewarm as of now.

HDB Financial Services IPO: Premium Backing, Premium GMP

The HDB Financial Services IPO is the most anticipated of the trio, primarily due to its parentage – HDFC Bank. The NBFC giant plans to raise around ₹9,000 crore via the public offer, making it one of the largest IPOs of the year.

Despite a relatively higher price band of ₹475–₹500 per share, the GMP for HDB is impressively strong, hovering between ₹140–₹155, signaling a listing premium of nearly 30%.

“A 30% GMP for a large-cap IPO is significant,” said Richa Narang, Equity Strategist at Indiva Wealth. “Investors are pricing in brand value, consistent financials, and the upcoming growth potential in the retail and MSME lending space.”

Market watchers also point to improved investor sentiment in the NBFC sector following strong Q4 results across the board, giving HDB a timely window to launch.

Indogulf Cropsciences IPO: Niche Sector, Moderate Enthusiasm

Agri-input player Indogulf Cropsciences Ltd’s IPO has also opened to subscriptions this week, targeting a fundraise of around ₹150 crore. With a strong presence in pesticides, micronutrients, and organic fertilizers, Indogulf is attempting to tap into India’s agriculture resilience.

The GMP for Indogulf currently ranges between ₹20–₹25, on an issue price of ₹80 per share, indicating a potential listing gain of 25-30%.

“Agri-chemical stocks have seen a rally in the last few months, which reflects in Indogulf’s GMP,” noted Sanjay Rathi, market observer and IPO expert. “However, the lack of institutional anchor investors might keep institutional sentiment cautious.”

Retail interest is notable, but not frenzied – perhaps a function of the company's smaller scale compared to listed peers like UPL and Dhanuka Agritech.

Market Context: Riding the Bullish Sentiment

The positive GMPs across all three IPOs coincide with buoyant market sentiment. The Nifty and Sensex have touched new all-time highs, and the IPO index itself has outperformed broader indices in the last quarter.

Additionally, SEBI’s recent reforms encouraging faster listing timelines and improved price discovery mechanisms are also helping attract retail and institutional interest to IPOs.

However, grey market activity remains sensitive to geopolitical cues and domestic monetary policy. With the RBI’s monetary policy due next week, there’s a chance that sentiments could shift quickly.

Investor Outlook: GMP is a Guide, Not a Guarantee

While GMPs are useful tools for gauging initial investor sentiment, experts caution against making investment decisions solely on grey market signals.

"A high GMP does not guarantee listing-day success. It can reverse if overall markets correct sharply or if QIB demand remains weak," cautioned Vinay Mehta, Portfolio Manager at BlueOak Capital.

For investors, the advice remains unchanged: look at fundamentals, long-term sector potential, and valuation. For traders, GMP can offer short-term direction, but risk management is key.

All eyes will be on how these three IPOs list over the coming weeks. Sambhav Steel offers a value-based infrastructure story, HDB rides on strong brand backing and scale, while Indogulf offers niche-sector appeal with solid financials. Their GMPs are reflective of early market vibes, but as always, the final story will unfold only on listing day.