IPO GMP Faceoff: Three Strong Contenders, One Market Sentiment

As India’s primary markets continue to see an influx of investor enthusiasm in mid-2025, the grey market is already setting the tone for upcoming IPOs. Three upcoming public issues — Globe Civil Projects, Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases, and Kalpataru Projects International — have caught investor attention with healthy grey market premiums (GMP), reflecting early expectations of listing gains.

Let’s delve into the GMP trends, business fundamentals, and what the grey market whispers mean for retail and HNI investors.

1. Globe Civil Projects IPO: Riding the Infrastructure Boom

GMP Signals: ₹85–₹90

The IPO of Globe Civil Projects Ltd, a construction and infrastructure firm primarily involved in civil and structural engineering, has seen an impressive grey market premium of ₹85–₹90. With an issue price expected around ₹150, this signals a near 60% potential listing gain.

According to Prateek Jaiswal, an independent IPO analyst:

“The infrastructure narrative remains strong in India, and Globe Civil’s robust order book and execution capabilities add to investor confidence. The GMP here reflects not just market momentum, but genuine earnings visibility.”

The ₹50 crore IPO, which opens next week, is attracting significant attention from HNIs looking for short-term listing gains as well as long-term growth potential in government and private infra projects.

2. Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases IPO: Specialty Chemicals Buzz

GMP Signals: ₹45–₹50

Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases Ltd, a leading producer and supplier of industrial and medical gases, is entering the market with a more niche but resilient proposition. The company’s IPO is commanding a GMP of ₹45–₹50, against an issue price of ₹120, hinting at a 35%–40% potential upside.

A mid-cap focused investment advisor, Ruchi Gupta, notes:

“Ellenbarrie has carved out a respectable presence in the East and South Indian markets. With rising demand in the medical and electronics manufacturing sector, the company is seen as a chemical play with a defensive angle.”

The ₹60 crore issue, although smaller in size, is seeing solid interest due to its consistent profitability and sector-specific tailwinds.

3. Kalpataru Projects International IPO: Diversified EPC Giant in Focus

GMP Signals: ₹20–₹25

The largest and most diversified of the three, Kalpataru Projects International, an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firm with global operations, is commanding a more modest GMP of ₹20–₹25. Given an expected issue price of ₹340, this translates to a 6–8% premium.

However, this is less about lack of interest and more about valuation catch-up, says Harsh Mehta, an equity research associate:

“Kalpataru’s IPO is more of a long-term play. Its existing institutional interest, global exposure, and margin expansion story make it less of a GMP rocket and more of a portfolio anchor.”

The ₹900 crore issue is a mix of fresh issuance and OFS (offer for sale), aimed at reducing debt and capitalising future growth, especially in international markets like Africa and the Middle East.

Market Context: IPO Momentum Returns

India's IPO market in 2025 has shown renewed vigor, particularly with strong subscription figures and positive listings across recent mid-cap and small-cap issues. Improved secondary market conditions, steady macroeconomic outlook, and investor optimism around budgetary spending have contributed to this buoyancy.

Recent successful listings such as Vraj Iron & Steel, SRM Contractors, and Basilic Fly Studio have reinforced investor appetite. Consequently, the grey market is responding with enthusiasm — often a leading indicator of actual demand.

What GMP Tells — and What It Doesn’t

While grey market premiums offer a sneak peek into investor sentiment, they are not definitive predictors. Factors like institutional subscription, QIB participation, anchor book allocation, and broader market mood on listing day play crucial roles.

As Aditya Shah, a Mumbai-based financial advisor, cautions:

“GMP should be seen as sentiment, not strategy. It gives a short-term view but shouldn’t replace fundamental analysis.”

GMP remains a strong sentiment barometer in India’s vibrant IPO landscape. In the case of Globe Civil, Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases, and Kalpataru Projects, the grey market is clearly picking favorites — but that doesn’t undermine the potential of any.

For seasoned investors, the choice lies between short-term flair and long-term fundamentals. The next few weeks will reveal whether the grey market premiums hold up post-listing, or whether these IPOs script a new success story beyond their GMP promise.