Copper Price Rises on Tariff Pause, Supply Concerns | April 2025 Global Copper Market Update

Copper prices gain 0.6% to ₹827.2 amid Trump’s 90-day tariff pause and global supply concerns. Japan’s copper output to fall, while China reports a 7.2% drop in copper imports. Read the full April 2025 copper market update.

Apr 12, 2025 - 19:12
 0  1
Copper Price Rises on Tariff Pause, Supply Concerns | April 2025 Global Copper Market Update
Copper Price Rises on Tariff Pause, Supply Concerns | April 2025 Global Copper Market Update

Mumbai, April 11, 2025Copper prices advanced modestly on Thursday, rising 0.6% to ₹827.20 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), as investor sentiment improved following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pause the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on several countries for 90 days. The move, though copper-specific tariffs were not directly targeted, has alleviated recessionary fears and revived optimism around U.S. manufacturing demand, a significant catalyst for global base metal consumption.


🔥 Copper Market Sentiment Boosted by Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Suspension

While copper had initially been exempt from the list of targeted goods, Trump’s broader decision to delay tariff escalation on non-retaliating countries created room for improved trade sentiment. This easing of protectionist rhetoric lifted investor hopes of revived industrial activity in the U.S., particularly in sectors like construction and automotive manufacturing, which are copper-intensive.

“The U.S. tariff pause gives breathing room to global markets and hints at potential manufacturing recovery,” said Rakesh Mehta, Metals Analyst at METL Capital.


🌐 US-China Trade War Still a Disruptive Force in Copper Scrap Trade

Despite short-term relief, the intensifying U.S.-China trade conflict continues to pose a structural challenge for the secondary copper market. The escalating tariff war—featuring U.S. tariffs up to 145% and China’s retaliatory 125% tariffs—has significantly disrupted the copper scrap export route from the U.S. to China, which is a major source of recycled copper.

This disruption could result in a tightening supply of secondary copper, particularly in the Chinese market, leading to potential upward pressure on prices in the coming quarters.


🇯🇵 Japan’s Refined Copper Output to Dip 1.3% in H1 FY2025-26

On the global supply front, Japan—the world's fourth-largest copper producer—is expected to witness a 1.3% decline in refined copper output during the first half of FY2025-26. The downturn is attributed to weaker demand from wire and cable manufacturers, although copper alloy demand remains stable.

This decline adds to global copper supply concerns amid ongoing logistics issues and refining bottlenecks.


📉 Chinese Copper Imports Fall, While Deficit Narrows Globally

In the first two months of 2025, China’s unwrought copper imports dropped 7.2% year-over-year to 837,000 metric tons, primarily due to increased domestic smelting capacity. Despite this, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a refined copper market deficit of 19,000 metric tons in January, slightly narrower than the December 2024 shortfall.

These mixed signals reflect the delicate balance between supply recovery and demand stability in the global copper market.


📊 Copper Price Forecast: Goldman Sachs Issues Cautious Outlook

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) revised its copper price outlook for Q3 2025, expecting average prices to hover around $8,300 per metric ton, down from previous bullish projections. The financial giant cited potential downside risks to industrial production, particularly if GDP growth falters amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and high interest rates globally.

“The copper market could remain range-bound unless macro headwinds subside or China ramps up fiscal stimulus,” noted Goldman analysts.


🔍 Technical Analysis: Short Covering Pushes Prices Higher

From a technical standpoint, copper futures are currently experiencing short covering, as open interest dropped by 4.38% to 5,322 contracts, indicating that bears are unwinding their positions.

  • Support levels: ₹822.10 and ₹817.10

  • Resistance levels: ₹832.30 and ₹837.50

  • A breakout above ₹832.30 may trigger fresh buying, targeting ₹837.50

  • Breach below ₹822.10 could lead to near-term downside testing ₹817.10


🧾 Key Takeaways – April 2025 Copper Market Update

  • Copper prices rose 0.6% to ₹827.2, backed by Trump’s 90-day tariff pause

  • US-China tariff war continues to disrupt secondary copper supply

  • Japan’s copper production forecasted to dip 1.3% in H1 FY2025-26

  • Chinese copper imports down 7.2% y-o-y, amid smelting capacity growth

  • ICSG reports global copper deficit of 19,000 tons in Jan 2025

  • Goldman Sachs lowers copper forecast to $8,300/ton for Q3 2025

  • Technicals show short covering; resistance at ₹832.3, support at ₹822.1

What's Your Reaction?

Like Like 0
Dislike Dislike 0
Love Love 0
Funny Funny 0
Angry Angry 0
Sad Sad 0
Wow Wow 0
ASJ Stock Market Classes ASJ Stock Market Classes is committed to equipping individuals with the knowledge and skills needed to navigate the stock market confidently. Our expert-led training programs, real-time market insights, and hands-on learning ensure that students gain practical trading experience. Master Stock Market Trading With ASJ Stock Market Classes and gain expert insights, hands-on training, and real-world strategies to excel in trading. Our expert-led courses provide in-depth stock market knowledge, real-time market analysis, and practical trading experience to help you become a confident trader. Our expert traders and market analysts provide comprehensive training in stock trading, investment strategies, and risk management to help you navigate the financial markets with confidence.