COPPER MCX FUT CMP 872. TARGET 838, SL 886.

COPPER MCX FUT CMP 872. TARGET 838, SL 886.

The security shows a reversal after making high of 886. It has broken the support trendline while closing below 874. Considering a SL above 886, one can go short with a target price around 838.

Chinese smelters are now paying up to −$45 per tonne to process copper concentrate—an unprecedented situation caused by China's aggressive capacity ramp-up, despite scarce concentrate. This has squeezed smelters’ margins deeply, prompting worry about shutdowns, especially across Asia. Rising US interest rates and recession fears in the US and Europe have driven copper prices lower, with contracts sinking toward multi-month lows due to concerns over subdued industrial demand.

In May 2025, China’s copper imports declined significantly, signaling cooling construction activity and broader slowing in the economy. Sentiment is further clouded amid uncertainty over stimulus success and global economic growth trajectories.

China controls refining of ~80% of critical minerals, including copper, raising alarm over global supply concentration and export curbs, which could disrupt supply chains.

The IEA projects a 30% supply shortfall versus demand by 2035, yet near‑term investment in new supply is sluggish.

Investors are reducing their long positions, and copper inventories remain relatively high—both signs of waning confidence and short-term price stress.